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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          09/29 11:48

   Livestock Complex Finally Sees Some Support

   The livestock complex is rolling into Thursday's afternoon fully higher and 
anxiously waiting to see the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, which is released 
Thursday afternoon.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst


   With the surprisingly strong export report for both beef and pork, the 
livestock complex has traded mostly higher throughout Thursday's market. 
Thursday afternoon the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released. 
December corn is down 1/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down 
$4.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 429.30 points.


   Upon seeing the day's strong export report, the live cattle market is 
rallying modestly into Thursday's afternoon. After a brutal week when crashing 
commodity sales have been the market's focus, as well as the greater economic 
uncertainty, seeing even the smallest essence of support is relieving to the 
live cattle market. October live cattle are up $0.70 at $143.75, December live 
cattle are up $0.82 at $147.07 and February live cattle are up $0.65 at 
$150.82. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any interest from packers arise at 
this point and it's likely that the majority of the week's business is done 
with. With packers having bought over 116,000 head last week, they now sit on 
enough inventory to let this week's market mostly pass them by. Throughout the 
week, Northern dressed cattle have sold for mostly $228, which is $1.00 lower 
than last week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle have sold for $143, 
which is fully steady with last week's weighted average. Beef net sales of 
21,500 mt for 2022 were primarily for South Korea (7,300 mt), China (6,000 mt) 
and Japan (3,500 mt).

   Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.63 ($246.92) and select up $0.65 
($219.86) with a movement of 85 loads (51.25 loads of choice, 15.94 loads of 
select, 8.44 loads of trim and 9.77 loads of ground beef).


   Even with the corn market trading steady to $0.02 higher in its nearby 
contracts, the feeder cattle contracts are trading over $1.00 stronger into 
Thursday's afternoon. It's helping the feeder cattle market that both the live 
cattle and lean hog contracts are trending higher, but now the market will look 
to its fundamental side to hopefully garnish even more support. Feeder cattle 
sales have been extremely hit or miss throughout the countryside as drought 
related marketing strategies are having to be implemented by ranchers as u 
drought remains a prevalent factor on most operations in the West and Midwest. 
September feeders are up $0.32 at $175.70, October feeders are up $1.27 at 
$176.27 and November feeders are up $1.45 at $176.75.


   The lean hog complex is rallying off the support found early Thursday 
morning in the day's strong export report. Hopefully this positive momentum 
continues to be the market's theme throughout the afternoon and the Quarterly 
Hogs and Pigs report displays a bullish outlook for the upcoming quarters, 
which would undoubtedly add more support to the market. October lean hogs are 
up $0.80 at $90.17, December lean hogs are up $0.55 at $76.37 and February lean 
hogs are up $0.65 at $80.12. It's tough saying whether or not the marekt has 
established a new bottom after sinking to prices not last seen since 
mid-December 2021 -- but based on how the market is trading today, slightly 
stronger tones are helping the market this Thursday. Pork net sales of 34,300 
mt for 2022 were primarily for Mexico (23,700 mt), South Korea (2,900 mt) and 
China (2,000 mt).

   The projected lean hog index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are 
lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.81 with a weighted 
average of $88.44, ranging from $80.00 to $102.00 on 4,401 head and a five-day 
rolling average of $89.38. Pork cutouts total 134.32 loads with 120.53 loads of 
pork cuts and 13.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.46, $100.31.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com

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