Netanyahu Gambles on American Support  03/03 06:14

   

   (AP) -- Throughout his political career, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin 
Netanyahu has steered his country along two pillars of foreign policy: an 
ironclad partnership with the United States and a relentless diplomatic and 
covert battle against the rulers of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

   Now, with Israel and the U.S. in a joint war against Iran's leadership, 
those two strategic paths risk clashing with each other. By enlisting the U.S. 
in what he views as Israel's existential battle against Iran, Netanyahu is 
taking a gamble that could open up the relationship to the strain of a war with 
far-reaching consequences.

   To be sure, persuading U.S. President Donald Trump to join the war was a 
coup for Netanyahu and highlights the strong ties between the two leaders. If 
they are successful, they could quickly realize their shared goal of toppling 
the Iranian government and spare the region a protracted conflict.

   But if the war drags on, the two allies' ties could again be tested.

   "A large part of the American public will view it as the Israeli tail 
wagging the American dog and that it is dragging the United States to a war in 
the Middle East that isn't theirs," said Ofer Shelah, a research fellow at the 
Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv, Israel-based think tank. 
The drop in public support that might unleash "will be very harmful for Israel 
in the medium and long term," he said.

   But, he added, in a nod to the Israeli leader's political ambitions: 
"Netanyahu is not interested in the medium and long term."

   US public opinion has been evolving

   For Netanyahu, successfully persuading Trump to strike Iran together is the 
apex of decades of proximity between the Israeli leader and Washington. 
Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving leader, speaks flawless English after 
having spent part of his youth in the U.S. and has always portrayed himself as 
Israel's bridge to America.

   Although he boasts about his tight relationships with multiple American 
presidents and members of Congress, Netanyahu over the past two years has seen 
support for Israel among the American public drop. According to Gallup polling, 
American sympathies in the Middle East have shifted dramatically toward the 
Palestinians.

   That shift in sentiment has been driven in large part by Democrats. But some 
Republicans, and even Trump's own backers, have been more outspoken against the 
diplomatic and financial support the U.S. has continued to grant Israel 
throughout the past two and a half years, when it has been embroiled in a war 
on multiple fronts sparked by Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attacks. The devastating 
images from the war in Gaza deepened Israel's international isolation.

   With a new war against Iran -- the second in less than a year -- Netanyahu 
is tackling an enemy that he and many Israelis view as an existential threat, 
citing its support for anti-Israeli militias across the region, its ballistic 
missile arsenal, and its nuclear program. He has led the crusade against Iran 
on the world stage for much of his career.

   Netanyahu said Sunday in a statement that the U.S. involvement "allows us to 
do what I have been hoping to do for 40 years -- to deliver a crushing blow to 
the terror regime." Netanyahu's office did not immediately respond to an 
Associated Press request for comment.

   The conflict could spiral

   Days into the war, Israel and the U.S. military appear to be working hand in 
glove to strike targets -- from the initial attack that killed top Iranian 
leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to assaults that 
allowed the forces free rein in Iranian skies.

   But the conflict has already set off aftershocks that could reverberate in 
the American heartland. At least six U.S. troops have been killed. Travel was 
disrupted across the region, leaving hundreds of thousands of travelers 
stranded. Oil prices surged, raising the prospect of costlier gasoline for U.S. 
drivers as well as increased prices for other goods at a time when people have 
been stung by a rising cost of living.

   Questions remain about the direction and aim of the war. It's unclear 
whether the air power will be enough to topple Iran's leadership, who or what 
should replace that leadership, and what role Israel or the U.S. will have in 
either. Every day presents new potential land mines.

   "Many people will blame Israel if things go badly wrong," wrote Nadav Eyal, 
a commentator with the Israeli Yediot Ahronoth daily newspaper. "Israel cannot 
afford to lose the American public's support under any circumstances. That is 
more important than striking any individual military facility."

   Still, Aaron David Miller, who served as an adviser on Middle East issues to 
Democratic and Republican administrations over two decades, said that Netanyahu 
has little to lose from the war.

   With elections scheduled for the fall, Netanyahu can use the war in Iran to 
divert attention away from the failures of the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, the worst 
in Israel's history. Instead, Netanyahu can set himself up as a brave wartime 
leader who fulfilled a pledge he has made much of his life to confront Iran.

   He can say he did so with support from the American president, who Miller 
said can pull the breaks on the war whenever he pleases.

   "If Trump feels as if it's going south, he'll find a way to de-escalate," he 
said, "and his good friend Benjamin Netanyahu will follow."